本报记者 倪 浩本周五或举行的美国铁路工人大罢工，可能会使美国近1/3货运陷入停顿，也将再次考验美国大宗商品的供应链，继续推高美国高企的通胀率。

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    This photo taken on June 14, 2025 shows an inbound China-Europe freight train (R) and an outbound one at the border gate at Erenhot Port in north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. (Xinhua/Yin Dongxun)
China's Erenhot railway port, a major border crossing between China and Mongolia in North China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, saw its 3,000th China-Europe freight train of the year depart on Wednesday, marking a new milestone in the port's cross-border transport operations and reflecting steadily improving transport efficiency.
As of Tuesday, the Erenhot railway port had handled 2,999 China-Europe freight trains this year, up 11.57 percent year-on-year, transporting 2.8322 million tons of goods, up 26.74 percent, providing important support for the smooth operation of international logistics corridors.
As the only railway gateway for China-Europe freight trains along the central corridor, the Erenhot railway port currently handles 76 routes connecting more than 70 hub stations in over 10 countries, including Germany and Poland, while covering most Chinese cities that serve as departure points for the service.
The cargo mix has continued to improve, shifting from mainly metals, chemicals, and light industrial products in the early years to higher-value-added goods such as new-energy vehicles, electronics, and home appliances.
The progress at the Erenhot railway port is just one example of the rapid development of China-Europe freight trains, which have played an increasingly important role as a stabilizer for global trade.
As of August 7, the Yiwu-Xinjiang-Europe freight train service, known as Yixin'ou in Chinese, had handled more than 100,000 TEUs of export cargo this year, setting a record high for the same period and remaining among the top China-Europe freight train services by shipment volume.
China-Europe freight train services have completed more than 130,000 trips carrying goods worth more than $520 billion over the past decade, an official said at a press conference in Beijing on July 28, as the rail link increasingly serves as a buffer against volatility in global shipping.
Total trips grew from 1,702 in 2016 to 20,022 in 2025, an average annual growth rate of more than 30 percent, according to the official.
Global Times
。业界也在担忧，罢工的“溢出效应”是否会加重已遭受疫情和俄乌冲突双重冲击的全球大宗商品市场，甚至波及中国。根据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）13日报道，面对美国30年来第一次全国铁路工人罢工，美国企业正日益陷入焦虑中，因为一旦罢工开始，将意味着美国更多的货架空置、工厂关闭，消费品的价格也势必上涨。彭博社则称，全美工业品供应链和农业商品运输都依赖铁路。如果铁路运输中断，美国经济每天的损失将高达20亿美元。美国铁路协会在一份报告中预测了罢工可能带来的影响，报告称，严重依赖铁路运输其产品的行业包括电子商务、农业、化工、汽车、建筑和煤炭。如果不采取行动，每天可能会导致7000多列火车停运，并引发零售品短缺、制造业大范围停工和失业。美国物流行业的公司高管们纷纷表示，全国性铁路罢工对经济的影响远超过西海岸的港口罢工。

C | 拜登政府正在采取措施竭力避免本周五的全国铁路工人大罢工的发生。

D | CNN报道称，目前只有少数几个工会与铁路公司达成协议，周五凌晨后，拜登将无权阻止罢工。届时，只有国会能够进行干预。一名白宫官员表示，美国总统拜登和内阁官员本周一与货运铁路公司和工会接触，努力避免成千上万的工人罢工。报道称，拜登亲自参与停滞不前的劳资谈判，表明白宫对可能进行的罢工非常重视，因为罢工可能会扰乱美国经济，并损害民主党在11月中期选举中保住国会多数席位的机会。美国周五可能举行的大罢工为大宗商品的供应拉响警报。中国社科院美国研究所研究员吕祥接受《环球时报》记者采访时分析认为，周五美国铁路工人的罢工大概率会进行，但很可能不是全国性的。罢工所带来的影响要取决于罢工规模的大小。不过吕祥也认为，铁路运输已网络化，一个地方罢工也会带来全局性影响，这无疑对美国抑制通胀产生不利，加大美联储大幅度加息的可能。美元指数上涨，迫使全球货币贬值，势必影响人民币的汇率。美国通胀上升，美元收紧，会削弱美国的市场需求，影响中国对美国的出口，增加中国外贸压力。

E | 另外，美国是全球能源和粮食重要的出口大国，罢工带来的运输不畅，将加剧全球能源及粮食价格的波动。

F | 中钢经济研究院首席研究员胡麒牧告诉《环球时报》记者，与能源相比，中美之间更重要的是粮食贸易，主要是大豆，而美国铁路工人大罢工有可能会对此产生影响。

G | 胡麒牧认为，美国是全球重要的粮食出口国，罢工可能会带来全球粮食价格的波动。不过，胡麒牧表示，这种影响产生在供应环节，而非生产端，因此这种影响将是局部的、短期的。吕祥也认为，鉴于美国铁路工人罢工可能带来的复杂深远的影响，拜登政府势必采取多种措施，以阻止这种情况的发生。

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