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英伟达财报即将登场！高盛：若不释放这三大利好股价恐仍将下行_我的网站

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一 | K图 NVDA_0 　　本周三（8月26日）美股盘后，“AI芯片霸主”英伟达将公布2027财年第二季度财报。
　　尽管和华尔街大多数机构一样，高盛预计英伟达第二季度业绩将表现强劲，业绩指引存在显著上修空间，但高盛分析师仍然暗示——这并不意味着公司股价能够在财报公布后上涨。 The ouster of Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has roused substantial global media attention, particularly in light of the colorful images coming out of the country of protesters storming his opulent Colombo residence and turning it into a tourist attraction, posing for selfies, and organizing pool parties and cookouts.,But the chaos in Colombo isn’t the first time in the last decade or so that a head of state has been ousted from office in a time of crisis and forced to flee, with the last dozen years witnessing at least five comparable cases.,Ashraf Ghani’s Bags of Money,Last August, a ten-day blitzkrieg offensive by the Taliban* to capture cities in the midst of the NATO withdrawal culminated in the fall of Kabul and the collapse of the Afghan government. President Ashraf Ghani, the US-educated academic-turned president, fled the country he ruled at the West’s behest for seven years.,Ghani evacuated Kabul on August 15, the same day that Taliban fighters entered the city, and eventually ended up in the United Arab Emirates, where he took refuge. Ghani apologized to his countrymen and women for bolting, saying that leaving the capital “was the most difficult decision” of his life and that he took it to avoid a repeat of the bloody street fighting witnessed in the city between government and Taliban forces in the 1990s. In addition, he said, his security team had advised him not to stay due to the risk of assassination or capture.,The Russian Embassy in Kabul painted a different story, alleging that Ghani fled the city in a convoy of vehicles stuffed with so much cash that it could not fit in a helicopter which took him out of the country. UK media later alleged that Ghani may have sought to smuggle as much as $169 million in cash out of Kabul, with a former bodyguard later confirming that the ex-president’s entourage was carrying “many big bags” containing “hundreds of millions, perhaps billions of dollars.”,Ghani has categorically rejected the allegations against him, and has said that he would welcome an international investigation to clear his good name.,AfghanistanEx-Afghan President Ghani Says He Was Made 'Scapegoat' for Fleeing, Blames Trump - Report 31 December 2021, 03:27 GMT,Evo Morales’ Happy Ending,On November 10, 2019, Bolivia’s long-serving democratic socialist president Evo Morales was forced to step down after weeks of protests sparked by an election whose results were disputed by the country’s US-backed opposition. Characterizing the crisis as a “coup” and fearing he would be killed by assassins hired out by his enemies, Morales fled to Mexico, where he was granted asylum by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.,The Trump administration hailed Morales’ ouster, with the US president tweeting that the unrest sent “a strong signal to the illegitimate regimes in Venezuela and Nicaragua that democracy and the will of the people will always prevail.”,But the anti-Morales’ plot’s victory was short-lived. Immediately after touching down in Mexico, Morales vowed that he’d remain in politics, and that his “fight” against “discrimination and humiliation” would continue.,In late 2019, after the election victory of leftist forces in Argentina, Morales traveled to that country, where he was granted asylum. In November 2020, after new elections in his home country saw the victory of Luis Arce, his former finance minister, Morales triumphantly returned to Bolivia. Today, although he is not president, Morales remains a major force in Bolivian politics, consistently attacking “Yankee imperialism” and recently calling on Bolivia and Argentina to join forces to become a global lithium-producing superpower.,The fate of his adversaries has not been so bright, with Jeanine Anez, the right wing politician who took over after Morales’ ouster, recently sentenced to ten years in prison for her role in the 2019 coup.,© Photo : Twitter / @evoespuebloFormer Bolivian President Evo Morales during his triumphant return to his home country in November 2020.Former Bolivian President Evo Morales during his triumphant return to his home country in November 2020.© Photo : Twitter / @evoespueblo,Yemen’s Hadi,In 2012, Yemeni politician Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi seemed to have the world at his feet. Succeeding President Ali Abdullah Saleh, whom he faithfully served as vice president starting in 1994, Hadi won the February 2012 presidential elections with an impressive 100 percent of the vote, running as the sole candidate. He proceeded to initiate a US- and Saudi-supported reform program aimed at transforming Yemen into a federal model of government under which six regions would enjoy large-scale political autonomy. Hadi also supported ramping up cooperation with Washington to fight piracy in the Gulf of Aden, and al-Qaeda** cells attempting to set up shop in Yemen’s sparsely populated northeastern territories.,Hadi’s reforms, allegations of corruption, and the ill-fated decision to end fuel subsidies in 2014 proved fatal, and between late 2014 and early 2015, much of the country was overrun by the Houthis, an Islamist, social justice-oriented political and militant movement dominant in the country’s populous western provinces. In January 2015, Hadi left his presidential palace in Sana’a for the last time, and, without resigning, flew to Saudi Arabia.,© AP Photo / Hani MohammedShiite Houthi tribesmen hold their weapons as they chant slogans during a tribal gathering showing support for the Houthi movement, in Sanaa, Yemen, Saturday Sept. 21, 2019Shiite Houthi tribesmen hold their weapons as they chant slogans during a tribal gathering showing support for the Houthi movement, in Sanaa, Yemen, Saturday Sept. 21, 2019© AP Photo / Hani Mohammed,Two months later, in March 2015, a Saudi-led military coalition began a military operation in Yemen aimed at restoring Hadi to power. Seven years on, the coalition has made little progress, and the impoverished southern Arabian nation remains mired in a deep political, military, economic and humanitarian crisis. Meanwhile, the Houthis have counterattacked by launching drone and missile strikes targeting Saudi infrastructure, military bases, airports, oil facilities, missile defense systems and cities, with no amount of sophisticated US-made air defense hardware seeming sufficient to stop the attacks.,As for Hadi, the exiled president resigned from the post in April, transferring power to an eight-member ‘presidential leadership council’ tasked with negotiating a permanent ceasefire with the Houthis.,Saudi Arabia ‘Pushed’ Yemen’s Hadi to Resign, Placed Him on House Arrest - WSJ17 April, 22:22 GMT,Ukraine’s Yanukovych,Of all the ejections from office featured in this list so far, perhaps none have been more consequential to the geopolitical instability being experienced by the world today than that of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.,Yanukovych handcrafted the crisis which would culminate in his ouster in the winter of 2013 by pulling a major political U-turn and rejecting an association agreement with the European Union in favor of closer ties with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. The decision prompted pro-EU protesters to flood the center of Kiev, with demonstrators establishing tent encampments and occupying the heart of the city – the Maidan Nezalezhnosti (lit. ‘Independence Square’).,Protests continued for weeks, with Yanukovych making concessions under EU pressure, accepting the resignation of the government of Prime Minister Nikolai Azarov in late January, and negotiating with an increasingly emboldened opposition to try to resolve the crisis.,On February 20, protests turned bloody, with 49 demonstrators and four police officers killed by mysterious snipers in a single day. On February 22, just a day after reaching an EU-backed agreement on the settling the crisis through early elections, Yanukovych fled Kiev in fear for his life, traveling east and slipping across the border into Russia, where he was offered refuge. Pro-European forces in Ukraine’s parliament drafted a resolution to strip Yanukovych of power, claiming he had “withdrawn from his duties in an unconstitutional manner.” From Russia, Yanukovych blasted the new authorities, and characterized his ouster as a coup d’état.,Kiev, Washington Responsible for Failure of Minsk Peace Agreements, Ukraine's Former President Says14 March, 15:17 GMT,Tunisia’s Ben Ali,On January 14, 2011, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s 24-year reign as Tunisian leader came to an end, with the president and his family fleeing the country to Saudi Arabia after weeks of protests which would hail the start of the so-called ‘Arab Spring’. The ‘Tunisian Revolution’ was driven by long-standing grievances among Tunisians about corruption, high unemployment, inflation, and general poor living conditions, as well as limitations on freedom of speech. The protests were sparked by 26-year-old street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi, who set himself on fire in the street after police confiscated his wares when he failed to pay a bribe, and after his plea for help from the local governor was left unanswered. The young man's act, which would cause over 100 copycat immolation attempts, would spark a month of protests which culminated in Ben Ali’s ouster.,After his ejection, the Tunisian president would live to a ripe old age of 83, passing away in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia in September 2019. But the unrest which his removal sparked would end up transforming much of the Middle East and engulfing some of its countries in crisis which continue to reverberate to this day. In 2011, major protests rocked Algeria and Yemen, and led to the overthrow of the government of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. In Libya, NATO lent a ‘helping hand’ to anti-government rebels by launching a campaign of airstrikes against forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi, culminating in his ouster and televised murder, and turning Libya into a failed state. The contagion of the Arab Spring also spread to Syria, which was turned into a breeding ground for jihadist militants who flocked to the country from the region and across the globe to take part in the unsuccessful US, Turkish, Saudi and Qatari-backed campaign to try to oust the government of Bashar Assad.,Ousted Tunisian President Ben Ali Buried in Saudi Arabia - Reports21 September 2019, 17:53 GMT,* An organization subject to United Nations sanctions for terrorist activities.,** A terrorist group outlawed in Russia and many other countries.。

二 | 　　优秀业绩恐无法提振股价　　高盛分析师施耐德（James Schneider ）在最新研究报告中，对英伟达的业绩表现持乐观预期：“考虑到GPU供需格局紧张，（英伟达）本季度有望交出亮眼成绩单，业绩指引存在可观上调潜力。”　　但需要注意的是，8月英伟达股价大幅上涨，上述利好或许已经被市场提前定价。高盛分析师指出，过去两周英伟达股价涨幅超12%，市场对这只股票的预期门槛已经抬升。　　施耐德团队对英伟达第二、第三季度每股收益（EPS）的预测，分别比华尔街市场一致预期高出6%与12%。但尽管业绩预测高于市场共识，但高盛给出的公司目标价（285美元）却仍略低于市场平均目标价。　　施耐德团队认为，英伟达当前股价较其评估的合理价值仍存在较大折价。

三 | 分析师补充，该股估值仍具备重估上行空间，但前提是三大催化因素落地：　　1.超大规模云厂商盈利指标持续改善，支撑资本开支增长的可持续性；　　2.英伟达在客户融资平台上保持审慎可控的资本支出，以此缓解市场对于供应商循环融资的担忧；　　3.公司继续坚定推进大规模股票回购与分红计划。　　施耐德团队还特别表示，投资者们将在英伟达财报电话会议上，重点关注五大信息：　　1、客户融资平台的相关细节，及其对资本配置带来的影响；　　2、Vera Rubin平台在2026年下半年的落地推进进展；　　3、毛利率走势以及上游原材料成本情况；　　4、由智能体AI（Agentic AI）带动的CPU需求；　　5、行业竞争格局变化。　　GPU旺盛需求背后暗藏股价隐患　　尽管当前AI热潮仍然如火如荼，市场对英伟达GPU的需求也依旧旺盛，然而高盛指出，GPU旺盛需求背后仍然暗藏着股价的回调风险。　　首先，英伟达想要实现每一个季度都“业绩超预期+上调指引”的难度正在加大。　　此外，虽然各大云厂商仍在持续上调资本开支计划，但无法确定接下来他们是否还会继续加码，这会对接下来两个季度业绩形成压力。

四 | 　　高盛指出，英伟达若想在财报公布之后实现股价大涨，仅仅做到常规的“业绩超预期、上调指引”已经不够，还需要释放具备重大分量的新消息。

五 | 　　回顾过往，英伟达此前在2027财年一季报中大幅上调分红，但财报披露次日股价依旧收跌，这表明单纯的利好已经不会必然驱动股价走高。　　另一重矛盾点在于，GPU以及AI产业链其他零部件的需求火爆推高了产品价格，却也加重了部分英伟达核心客户的财务负担。　　在本月初，英伟达联合阿波罗、贝莱德、黑石、高盛、KKR等多家华尔街机构，共同搭建AI算力基础设施融资平台，计划撬动超过5000亿美元第三方资本。　　高盛分析师指出，考虑到部分大客户难以承担高涨的算力采购需求，市场对于供应商循环融资的担忧不断升温，而英伟达目前的表态尚不足以打消这份顾虑。　　而高盛希望英伟达能够在财报电话会上，对这一融资平台做出详细说明。　　高盛分析师的言外之意非常明晰：即便高盛看好英伟达未来12个月的业绩和股价走势，也预判公司大概率会在本周交出超预期的财报与指引，但除非英伟达抛出重磅新利好，否则财报发布后，英伟达股价更有可能出现下跌，而非大幅冲高。